UFC 121 Forecast

What: UFC 121
Why: Because barely three months after his come from behind submission of Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar steps back into the Octagon to face what may well be a bigger challenge in unbeaten Cain Velasquez. Because everyone has been waiting to see the 170 pound version of Jake Shields enter the UFC, and because Tito Ortiz has all of us wondering if he is actually healthy this time around.

Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0)
When Champion Brock Lesnar steps into the Octagon on October 23rd, he comes in riding a very short but very impressive record, with victories over Randy Couture, Frank Mir, a very dangerous stomach ailment, and Shane Carwin to his credit.
Unbeaten Cain Velasquez comes into this fight with the slightly longer resume, however his early UFC competition pales in comparison to that of Lesnar, who was thrown a former Champion (Mir) in his first UFC bout. (Lesnar lost that one by kneebar, but did so after dominating Mir).
This fight boils down to a battle between size over technique. Both men are accomplished amateur wrestlers, but Lesnar to date has shown relatively simple and unrefined striking. Velasquez on the other hand has shown he is a pinpoint striker, effectively mixing his punches and kicks into a formidable stew of pain for everyone he has faced, highlighted by his first round dissection of Minotauro Nogueira in his last outing. Size will always be a factor with Lesnar, as he will likely outweigh the challenger by 30 or so pounds come fight night. What Cain does have however, is a legendary gas tank and the ability to go hard for three rounds. How he does in four or five rounds is yet to be seen. Lesnar hasn't had his cardio questioned yet, but I believe this fight will finally give us a clear cut idea of how well conditioned the massive Champion is.
As I said before, this fight comes down to size over technique...and I believe Lesnar will walk away with a decision win if he gets it to the ground. Brock by UD.