The UFC returns to Vancouver with another stacked night of fights with UFC 131: Dos Santos vs. Carwin. Carwin is returning to competition for the first time since losing via second round submission to Brock Lesnar at UFC 116, and Dos Santos is returning after a decision win over Roy Nelson and coaching stint on the Ultimate Fighter. Oddly enough, Carwin is stepping in for Lesnar...who after coaching against Dos Santos suffered a return of his diverticulitis, and is out for the foreseeable future. On the line is a shot at current titleholder Cain Velasquez, who will be making his return from rotator cuff surgery to make his first title defense.
In the co-main event we will see the featherweight debut of former lightweight title contender Kenny Florian versus top-10 featherweight Diego Nunes. Florian successfully made the weight cut so this should be a pretty good fight. But now on to the picks.
UFC 131 Main Card Picks
Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin
Most Pick: Carwin by TKO, due to Carwin being the more complete fighter...excellent boxing combined with outstanding wrestling. The only question is whether or not his gas tank will hold out for three rounds,
Steele Pick: Carwin by TKO. I have to agree, Dos Santos hasn't faced an elite wrestler like Carwin yet...and his ground game will likely be tested for the first time. On the feet I give Dos Santos a slight advantage, but with Carwin's punching power...it might be a short night for Cigano.
Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes
Most Pick: Florian by Decision. Florian is a master tactician, and only struggled against the bigger wrestlers at 155. This is his fight to lose, the only question is how his body performs with the cut to 145.
Steele Pick: Florian by Decision. Sound logic once again, Florian is the better fighter in this writers opinion.
Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman
Most Pick: Einemo by Submission, due to Herman's suspect takedown defense when attempting various strikes, and Einemo's resume as one of the better submission grapplers in the heavyweight division.
Steele Pick: Herman by TKO. I like Einemo, but Herman has been the far more active fighter...and Einemo hasn't fought since a 2006 loss to Fabricio Werdum. Herman will have the better conditioning, and the better chin.
Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz
Most Pick: Munoz by KO, citing Maia's rudimentary striking. While not the best striker himself, Munoz unloads punches in bunches with plenty of power behind them.
Steele Pick: Munoz by Decision. This is a bad style matchup for Maia. Munoz is far more willing to take damage to win this fight...and this is going to be a damaging fight for both men. Maia has a dangerous guard, but Munoz is active enough with sweeps and passes to stay out of too much danger.
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
Most Pick: Cerrone by KO, because for all his smack talking...Cerrone is a complete fighter. He mixes his punches, kicks, and grappling very well with Greg Jackson in his corner.
Steele Pick: Cerrone by TKO. Rocha is a submission ace, but I don't see him locking anything on the uber-active Cerrone, who will (with Yoda in his corner) knock the crap out of Rocha and take home his second UFC win.
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