Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson Picks

This weekend brings us another offering from the now-Zuffa owned Strikeforce. We'll get to see three of the final PRIDE belts step into the cage in the form of former Pride Heavyweight Champion Fedor Emelianenko and former Pride Middleweight and Welterweight Champion Dan Henderson. That fact is only there for nostalgia, as Fedor has dropped two straight finishes and Henderson lost both of his title unification matches in the UFC but from a fan perspective its freaking awesome (Plus, with Dan being the current SF Light Heavyweight Champ it shows at least one of these fighters is still on top). Also on this card we'll see Meisha Tate challenge Marloes Coenen for the Strikeforce Womens Welterweight title. And if that isn't enough violence, we'll get to see Robbie Lawler and Tim Kennedy beat one another up with some Scott Smith vs. Tarec Saffiedine in there for good measure. I have to give Strikeforce a big A plus for putting this card together, as it feeds my curiosity and my lust for violence in one sweeping move.

Anyway, onto the picks.

Main Event: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

Most Pick: Henderson by Decision

Steele Pick: Henderson by Decision. A lot is being made of size in this fight, however Dan has shown his ability to fight heavyweights before (in the early UFC days) and with the confidence of two knockout wins in recent memory, he'll manage to squeeze out a decision win over the Brett Favre-ish Fedor, who seems to already have half his mind and one foot out of MMA.

Marloes Coenen vs. Meisha Tate

Most Pick: Tate by Split Decision
Steele Pick: Tate by Decision, because as tough as Coenen is I believe Tate is the more well rounded fighter, and she'll be coming into a fight where Coenen's confidence has to be hurting from getting her ass handed to her for over three rounds in her last title defense. I can see this ending early, but most likely it'll be Tate by UD.

Tim Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler

Most Pick: Lawler by Decision

Steele Pick: Kennedy by Submission, because I have to support a fellow soldier here and I think Kennedy has a more diverse arsenal to assault Lawler from. Much like his last fight, Tim will avoid the power and take this to the mat, where his submission game will add another win to Tim's tool belt.

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

Most Pick: Woodley by Decision

Steele Pick: Woodley by Decision. This fight is just going to be a rewind of Koscheck and Daley all over again, with Daley unable to get out from under the smothering wrestler. Fairly easy win for Woodley unless he gets caught.

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Scott Smith

Most Pick: Saffiedine by KO
Steele Pick: Saffiedine by TKO. This fight comes down to one thing, movement and chin. Saffiedine has better movement and a better chin...no need for judges here, TKO in the second.

Why Urijah Faber Isn't Done

Why Urijah Faber Isn't Done
A.J. Burns – Steele's MMA

On July 2, Urijah Faber enters the Octagon at UFC 132 for what will be the 19th title fight of his career. A professional fighter since 2003, Faber has amassed a record of 25-4 fighting in promotions ranging from King of the Cage, to Gladiator Challenge, until rising to the top of the 145 pound division in the World Extreme Cagefighting promotion; becoming the face of the organization and of the lighter weight classes in general. These are facts, any web search will show you this. What you won't see though is why Faber is going to be at the top of the mountain in mixed martial arts for years to come.

Faber is a natural bantamweight, with a skill set complete with submissions, top-tier wrestling, and a vastly arrayed arsenal of strikes that has allowed him to dictate the pace and position of his fights. An examination of his losses reveals that he generally struggled when facing a vastly larger opponent who was uncommonly skilled in one discipline. For Jose Aldo, his hand speed and range allowed him to neutralize Faber's ability to close the distance and wear Aldo out. Against Mike Brown he faced a highly skilled wrestler, who was able to use his size advantage to take Faber down and keep him down. Only one other man has beaten Faber professionally, Tyson Griffin; another skilled wrestler (Griffin beat Faber via TKO in 2005) and a longtime 155 pound contender. These are the only men to face The California Kid and emerge with a hand raised.

On the other hand, Faber has excelled in every area of MMA. His striking hasn't diminished, his wrestling hasn't dropped off, and he can still submit a dude too. He has managed to keep his training fresh, training with a wide range of fighters in virtually every weight class and from every background possible. His recent drop to 135 pounds now puts him in front of an almost undefeated champion in Dominick Cruz. I say almost undefeated because the only blemish on Cruz's 18 fight record is a first round submission loss to the then WEC Featherweight Champion Faber in 2007. While Cruz has improved since that loss, Faber has improved as well. Now in his natural weight class, Urijah will have the luxury of being the bigger guy on a regular basis. In comparison to UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture, Faber shares many of the same traits that kept Couture at an elite level for so long. He is a good strategist and never lacks a good game plan, and he has the same ability to adjust to an opponent on the fly.

Overall Faber has every advantage in this fight. He has the experience, talent, preparation, and the drive to succeed in becoming only the third fighter in UFC history to hold titles in two separate weight classes*. He is a fan favorite who will continue to be a draw for the UFC for years to come, and is already a certain lock for induction into the UFC Hall of Fame upon his retirement. So look out Dominator, on July 2nd your second loss is coming from the only man to beat you.

*Faber held the Featherweight Championship in the Zuffa owned WEC. Since the UFC had no Featherweight division at the time, and the linear title was converted to the UFC Featherweight Championship, this belt counts. Faber will become the third fighter, after Couture and BJ Penn to be a two division titleholder under Zuffa ownership.

UFC 131 Picks - The Main Card

The UFC returns to Vancouver with another stacked night of fights with UFC 131: Dos Santos vs. Carwin. Carwin is returning to competition for the first time since losing via second round submission to Brock Lesnar at UFC 116, and Dos Santos is returning after a decision win over Roy Nelson and coaching stint on the Ultimate Fighter. Oddly enough, Carwin is stepping in for Lesnar...who after coaching against Dos Santos suffered a return of his diverticulitis, and is out for the foreseeable future. On the line is a shot at current titleholder Cain Velasquez, who will be making his return from rotator cuff surgery to make his first title defense.

In the co-main event we will see the featherweight debut of former lightweight title contender Kenny Florian versus top-10 featherweight Diego Nunes. Florian successfully made the weight cut so this should be a pretty good fight. But now on to the picks.

UFC 131 Main Card Picks

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin

Most Pick: Carwin by TKO, due to Carwin being the more complete fighter...excellent boxing combined with outstanding wrestling. The only question is whether or not his gas tank will hold out for three rounds,

Steele Pick: Carwin by TKO. I have to agree, Dos Santos hasn't faced an elite wrestler like Carwin yet...and his ground game will likely be tested for the first time. On the feet I give Dos Santos a slight advantage, but with Carwin's punching power...it might be a short night for Cigano.

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

Most Pick: Florian by Decision. Florian is a master tactician, and only struggled against the bigger wrestlers at 155. This is his fight to lose, the only question is how his body performs with the cut to 145.

Steele Pick: Florian by Decision. Sound logic once again, Florian is the better fighter in this writers opinion.

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

Most Pick: Einemo by Submission, due to Herman's suspect takedown defense when attempting various strikes, and Einemo's resume as one of the better submission grapplers in the heavyweight division.

Steele Pick: Herman by TKO. I like Einemo, but Herman has been the far more active fighter...and Einemo hasn't fought since a 2006 loss to Fabricio Werdum. Herman will have the better conditioning, and the better chin.

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz

Most Pick: Munoz by KO, citing Maia's rudimentary striking. While not the best striker himself, Munoz unloads punches in bunches with plenty of power behind them.

Steele Pick: Munoz by Decision. This is a bad style matchup for Maia. Munoz is far more willing to take damage to win this fight...and this is going to be a damaging fight for both men. Maia has a dangerous guard, but Munoz is active enough with sweeps and passes to stay out of too much danger.

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

Most Pick: Cerrone by KO, because for all his smack talking...Cerrone is a complete fighter. He mixes his punches, kicks, and grappling very well with Greg Jackson in his corner.

Steele Pick: Cerrone by TKO. Rocha is a submission ace, but I don't see him locking anything on the uber-active Cerrone, who will (with Yoda in his corner) knock the crap out of Rocha and take home his second UFC win.

UFC 129 Picks

After almost a month on the sidelines, the UFC returns with an awesome fight card lined up for us in Toronto on April 30th. UFC 129 is the long awaited contest between UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre and the Everywhere Else Champion Jake Shields. Also included is the UFC debut of Jose Also versus hometown boy Mark Hominick. We also get to see the 'is he really retiring' swan song of Hall of Fame member Randy Couture against former champion Lyoto Machida. Rounding out this card is a Light Heavyweight bout between Vladimir Matyushenko and Jason Brilz, along with a Lightweight showdown between Mark Bocek and former WEC champ Ben Henderson. Will Randy really retire? Will Shields pull the upset? Will Aldo dazzle? Does anyone really care about Matyushenko or Brilz at this point? We look forward to April 30th so we can have all those answers and more.


Georges St. Pierre *Champion vs. Jake Shields

Most Pick: St. Pierre by Decision, because he has dominated so much up to this point that its hard to imagine anyone knocking him off the top. His game continues to improve, but he's not much of a finisher anymore.

Steele Pick: Shields by Decision, don't place bets on this one...but every time I pick against Shields he burns my ass and wins. So while my gut says GSP, I'm going to pick Jake for once.


Jose Aldo *Champion vs. Mark Hominick

Most Pick: Aldo by TKO. No one has been able to handle Aldo as of yet and as one of the top three pound for pound fighters, everyone expects Aldo to end this quickly.

Steele Pick: Aldo by TKO. I have to agree with the consensus here, although Aldo has been sidelined by a back injury I don't see this ending any other way than with the champions hand raised. I like Hominick, and I love his striking...I just don't see it being enough.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Most Pick: Machida by Decision, because once again everyone questions the Hall of Famers age and the technical prowess of Machida.

Steele Pick: Couture by Decision. Although I think Machida is a good fighter, he finds himself facing the master strategist of the sport. I don't see age being a factor here, as Couture will close the distance and wear out the former champion en route to a three round decision.

Benson Henderson vs. Mark Bocek

Most Pick: Henderson by Decision. Lost in the hype of the Showtime kick, Henderson is still a force at 155, and everyone sees him taking this one in a lopsided fashion.

Steele Pick: Henderson by Submission. Coming off the loss to Pettis, I see Henderson making a statement in his UFC debut.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

Most Pick: Brilz by Decision. Brilz should have beaten Lil' Nog. He is by far the better striker of the two, and most see him outpointing the veteran.

Steele Pick: Matyushenko by Decision. I disagree with the majority of analysts on this one. I see the wily veteran controlling the pace of the fight, landing the better takedowns and taking a three round decision win.

Three Years Ago in Iraq

Steele Note: This is taken from my blog I maintained while I was in Iraq from 2007 to 2008.

From 'Learning in Wartime'

Two weeks.

That's how much time is left before we board a plane for Kuwait and the eventual trip home. It feels odd that this tour is almost over, although its definitely gone long enough. I just can't help but think that I'm going to miss part of it once I'm gone. Civilian life? I can't even begin to fathom it at this point. Its going to feel weird driving a normal car, wearing civilian clothes, and being in my house again. Hopefully its a smooth transition, other than the marital troubles anyway.

Besides that whole mess I'm feeling pretty good about being back home, although I admit that coming here in 2009 with the 30th Brigade out of North Carolina looks really good to me. For all the bitching we do, I love being an infantryman. I love the feeling that comes with dragging around a heavy ruck and a full combat load. It beats the hell out of sitting in an office or sorting ammo or doing laundry for a living. Sometimes I wonder how people settle for doing that. I'm just glad there are more guys like the ones here, and that I've had the chance to serve beside them. I wouldn't trade my friends here for anything.

Other than the possibility of coming to Iraq in 2009 I really have no idea what to do with the near future besides return to Recruiting, which will only happen after I take my 60 day mega-block of leave. I need the time to unwind and become human again.

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Picks

This weekend brings us another offering of violence with Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley on Showtime. This card has gained attention with the full weight of Zuffa and the UFC behind it and the associated media attention it has received. Will Daley get the upset win and irk Dana White? Will Gilbert Melendez embarrass another Japanese fighter? Will Jason Miller talk shit on Nick Diaz on Twitter for the duration of the card? This weekend will give us all the answers to those questions as we do the run down on the main card.

Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley

Most Pick: Diaz by Submission, because Diaz is the more well rounded of the two, and he's got a gas tank that can go ten rounds.

Steele Pick: I'm taking Diaz by Decision. Unless Daley lands often and early in the first round, theres no way this fight is going to continue standing, and once it does hit the floor Daley is going to be as lost as a potato chip in a fat chicks stomach.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Most Pick: Melendez by Decision, because no one has threatened Melendez and his grip on Strikeforce gold at 155.

Steele Pick: Melendez by Decision. I haven't seen anything from Kawajiri that makes me think he'll beat Melendez. His win over Josh Thomson was impressive, but not enough to sway me this time. Japanese MMA gets rocked by the Melendez earthquake yet again.

Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm

Most Pick: Aoki by Submission, citing his experience level.

Steele Pick: I'm taking Beerbohm by Decision, because even though Pat Healy showed the holes in Beerbohms grappling, he is still the more well rounded fighter. And I like watching Aoki lose.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine

Most Pick: Mousasi by KO, because he has the clear cut stand up advantage.

Steele Pick: Mousasi by Decision, because while I don't see Jardine winning this fight on a weeks notice, I also don't see him being knocked out. Jardine is hungry, but this is a bad style matchup for him.

All in all it looks to be an entertaining night in Mixed Martial Arts, so grab some beer, sit on the couch, and watch some legal violence with a smile on your face.

TUF Week!

This week brings us one of the better happenings in reality television: The Ultimate Fighter

This season we get to see a bunch of welterweights beat the crap out of each other, get drunk, break stuff, and probably air some dirty laundry on one another. To top it all off, we have two dudes coaching who are polar opposites. Junior Dos Santos is the quiet professional, knocking dudes heads off without much controversy. On the other side we have Brock Lesnar, who people either love or hate depending on who you talk too. Lesnar is reclusive, yet when hes in your face you know all about it.

So what will we learn this season? Is Brock a good coach? Can he take a punch? Does Dos Santos have a good guy coaching persona to match his fists? I'm freakin' pumped either way, and I'm pretty sure Bud Light is going to have a new spokesperson with the amount I'm going to be pounding down.

In other news, Chael Sonnen has to wait until April 8th before we find out what his due is for pleading guilty to money laundering. We already know the conviction hasn't put any damper on his mouth, as his open letter to Joe Silva concerning Michael Bisping shows...but either way, I love hearing that dude talk smack.

Oh, and I'm experimenting with some new web layouts as well as video blogging. Pimpin'

UFC 128 Post Fight Reaction

Last night was a pretty good night, I went four out of five on picks...and I don't have a hangover.

Rua vs. Jones Reaction

I was very surprised to see Jon Jones dominate Shogun Rua the way he did, but I have to hand it to the kid...he knows how to bring the fight. Perfect gameplan, perfect timing, perfect everything. I think Jones is going to be the man in that division for quite a while, regardless of the challenger.

He will face former training partner Rashad Evans in his first title defense. Evans, himself a former UFC LHW Champion, will be returning from a more than one year layoff from competition.

Faber vs. Wineland

While I was sure Faber was going to win this fight, I didn't anticipate it being nearly as close as it was. Wineland showed great takedown defense in the first round, and did much more clinch work than I believe anyone thought he would. Still, Faber dominated the second and third rounds and pulled out a 29-28 win on the scorecards. Next for Faber should be a matchup against the man he already beat, Dominick Cruz for the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Miller vs. Shalorus

Another great fight, as Miller outclassed the standout wrestler all the way to the third round TKO. Next for Miller should be a top five lightweight, and a title shot if he passes that final test.

Marquardt vs. Miller

We all knew Miller had heart, but to stay in there and fend off Nate Marquardt the way he did shows the guy isn't going anywhere. Nate outclassed him in all three rounds en route to a 30-27 win on the cards, although he needs another one or two fights with marquee opponents to secure another shot at Anderson Silva for the belt.

Cro Cop vs. Schaub

Cro Cop is done in the UFC, and will probably retire. In a close fight, all it took was one ringing right hand from Schaub toward the end of the third frame to not only knock out a legend...but ensure we will see Schaub fighting his way toward a title shot in his next appearance.

Coming this week, more reactions and I'm going to be taking another shot at Bob Reilly and doing my part to bring MMA to New York State.

UFC 128 Main Card Picks

Since my last post we've seen Zuffa, LLC. purchase Strikeforce, and a 40 year old Dan Henderson capture the Strikeforce 205lb. strap in dramatic fashion. Also we got to see Tim Kennedy choke the crap out of Melvin Manhoef...which was just awesome.

But on to this weekend, as we get another treat courtesy of Dana White and Co. in Newark, NJ. UFC 128 looks to be one of the more notable cards this year, as we see the talented Jon Jones lock horns with Shogun Rua in his first title bout. Also notable on this card is the UFC debut of former WEC Champions Urijah Faber and Eddie Wineland. Not to mention you've got prospect Brendan Schaub vs. Mirko Cro Cop, this card looks to be extremely entertaining. But moving right along to the picks.

Light Heavyweight Title Bout – Shogun Rua vs. Jon Jones

Most Pick: Jon Jones has been beating the crap out of people, and doing it in dramatic fashion. After his destruction of Ryan Bader, Jones goes into this fight as the heavy favorite...due to his speed, wrestling, and his crazy style of stand up fighting. The pick: Jones by TKO

My Pick: Although I like Jones, I can't count out Rua. His experience and his skill give him a definite advantage in my eyes. Also, I don't know what kind of emotions are going through the head of Jones at this point. I'm taking Rua by TKO in the 3rd.


Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Most Pick: Faber by Submission, because he looks pretty beast at 135...and Wineland doesn't have nearly the ground skills of the WEC poster boy.

My Pick: I'm taking Faber by TKO, because I feel that Urijah is going to want to prove a point vs. Wineland, and that point is he can stand with anyone...no matter how good.

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Most Pick: Miller by Decision, this is another litmus test for the WEC lightweight fighters entering the UFC, and nobody at this point has seen anything from Shalorus to suggest he can derail the rise of Miller.

My Pick: Hate to agree with the pack again on this one, but I feel like Miller is going to be too much. I'll take him by Decision after three.

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

Most Pick: Marquardt by Decision, because after the Okami fight...Nate has something to prove, and he seems pretty set on doing just that. Also, Miller hasn't shown the ability to beat the elite in the middleweight division.

My Pick: Marquardt by TKO, because I think Nate is REALLY pissed. Also, Miller hasn't shown the ability to deal with a striker on Marquardt's level. Bisping showed us that.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Brendan Schaub

Most Pick: Schaub by TKO/KO. Because seriously, what has Cro Cop shown us about his ability to fight in the UFC?

My Pick: The obvious, Schaub by DESTRUCTION! Seriously, I feel like The Hybrid is going to overwhelm and KO the veteran early on in Round 1.

UFC 127 Picks

Thats right folks, this weekend brings us UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch live from the Acer Arena in Sydney Australia. The big question here is quite simple, will Penn sizzle or fizzle? Will Jon Fitch get BJ to the ground and grind the hell out of him? Will Michael Bisping circle into another huge right hand? All these questions and more will be answered for us tomorrow night on Pay Per View.

BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch

Most pick: Fitch by Decision, due to the tremendous size advantage and consistent game Fitch brings to the octagon.

Steele pick: Penn by TKO, I love the underdog...and in this case I think the pissed off, scary BJ Penn is going to show up instead of the listless, defenseless one we saw against Edgar.

Bisping vs. Rivera

Most pick: Bisping by Decision, due to the anger created by Ranger Up and Jorge's great series of videos.

Steele pick: Rivera by TKO, because I love Jorge Rivera...I think his age helps him here, and a pissed off Bisping is more likely to circle right into a huge right hand. Plus, I got drunk and had a dream that Rivera won by TKO in Round 2, and Bud Light has never did me wrong.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver

Most pick: Sotiropoulos by Submission, because the Aussie has yet to come up short in front of the home crowd.

Steele pick: Sotiropoulos by Submission, because I have to agree with everyone at some point...and I don't think Siver's ground game is enough to handle the Aussie, even if he has the advantage on the feet. I say G-Sots chokes him the heck out.

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole

Most pick: Lytle by KO, because Lytle really wants a title shot...and he is facing a late sub for Carlos Condit and if I was a new UFC fighter, I wouldn't want to see that pissed off dude across the Octagon from me.

Steele pick: Lytle by Freakin' Murder, because I'm pretty damn sure Lytle is going to drop this fool like Lindsay Lohan from any respectable job.

Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi

Most pick: Camozzi by Decision, because apparently he looks better on paper.

Steele pick: Noke by Decision, because I thought he sounded cool at the press conference. In case you haven't noticed, I don't know a damn thing about these two.

MMA in NY, an Analysis in Ignorance

"If you're adding kicking and punching to mixed martial arts, how can you regulate it so that there isn't serious injuries?"

This question from NY Post Reporter Megan Paznik says everything you need to know about the level of research done by many on the sport of Mixed Martial Arts.

I had the displeasure of earlier watching a video report that Ms. Paznik did on the "barbarism" of the sport, with plenty of bloody fight photos and even comparisons to dog fighting.

Well Ms. Paznik, here is my answer to your question.

Last time I checked, boxing is regulated in NY, as are many of the individual disciplines in MMA. That list includes wrestling, jiu-jitsu, judo, and the list goes on. In addition, other contact sports such as football, hockey, and lacrosse are both legal and popular in the State of New York as well as elsewhere around the country. I could put together a video of Eli Manning's nasty cut this past preseason, Lawrence Taylor breaking Joe Theismann's leg, and Kevin Everett of the Buffalo Bills suffering a career and life threatening neck injury with similar comparisons to ban the sport of football, and oddly enough every reference I just used is from a New York NFL franchise.

Every contact sport carries with it a risk of injury, as well as a responsibility for the organizations which promote such sports to ensure the safety of athletes in competition. The fact is that in almost twenty years of operation, the UFC has never seen a life threatening injury or death in competition...which includes the pre-sanctioning days of the mid-1990's. Within the sport you have a referee whose sole job is to ensure that a strict set of rules of followed, and who also is there to ensure the safety of both fighters. As in boxing, medical evaluations of athletes are required prior to and after competition, and there must be a medical staff on hand to further ensure the safety of each fighter. In no way is it a fight to the death as in dog fighting as some would lead folks to believe. There are just as many cuts, bruises, and broken bones in football, hockey, and yes...even boxing as there are in MMA, if not more.

And finally, my most important point...the economic impact of denying New Yorkers the pleasure of watching our sport. The effect of Mixed Martial Arts on every market it has reached has been both favorable and noticeable. Why would anyone in their right mind not add tens of millions in revenue to the local economy? In this day and age it is not only stupid, but ridiculous. Nearly every other major market benefits from MMA, yet New York persists with an obtuse attitude toward a safe, marketable sport, and is basically telling the world the economy there is fine...and they don't need your business.

Give me a break. Get off your pedestal and join the rest of the world in enjoying Mixed Martial Arts.

UFC 121 Forecast

What: UFC 121
Why: Because barely three months after his come from behind submission of Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar steps back into the Octagon to face what may well be a bigger challenge in unbeaten Cain Velasquez. Because everyone has been waiting to see the 170 pound version of Jake Shields enter the UFC, and because Tito Ortiz has all of us wondering if he is actually healthy this time around.

Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0)
When Champion Brock Lesnar steps into the Octagon on October 23rd, he comes in riding a very short but very impressive record, with victories over Randy Couture, Frank Mir, a very dangerous stomach ailment, and Shane Carwin to his credit.
Unbeaten Cain Velasquez comes into this fight with the slightly longer resume, however his early UFC competition pales in comparison to that of Lesnar, who was thrown a former Champion (Mir) in his first UFC bout. (Lesnar lost that one by kneebar, but did so after dominating Mir).
This fight boils down to a battle between size over technique. Both men are accomplished amateur wrestlers, but Lesnar to date has shown relatively simple and unrefined striking. Velasquez on the other hand has shown he is a pinpoint striker, effectively mixing his punches and kicks into a formidable stew of pain for everyone he has faced, highlighted by his first round dissection of Minotauro Nogueira in his last outing. Size will always be a factor with Lesnar, as he will likely outweigh the challenger by 30 or so pounds come fight night. What Cain does have however, is a legendary gas tank and the ability to go hard for three rounds. How he does in four or five rounds is yet to be seen. Lesnar hasn't had his cardio questioned yet, but I believe this fight will finally give us a clear cut idea of how well conditioned the massive Champion is.
As I said before, this fight comes down to size over technique...and I believe Lesnar will walk away with a decision win if he gets it to the ground. Brock by UD.

UFC 118: Main Card Picks

Main Card

Penn vs. Edgar - Penn
Couture vs. Toney - Couture
Florian vs. Maynard - Florian
Maia vs. Miranda - Maia
Diaz vs. Davis - Davis

Preliminary Bouts

Winner vs. Lentz - Winner
Lauzon vs. Ruediger - Lauzon
Miller vs. Salter - Miller
Osipczak vs. Soto - Soto
Pierce vs. Alves - Pierce

UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn II

Saturday brings us one of the most anticipated rematches of the year. BJ 'The Prodigy' Penn and Frankie 'The Answer' Edgar square off in the main event of UFC 118 in Boston on Saturday in what has fight of the year potential written all over it.

The last time these two men squared of, Edgar (12-1) stepped into the Octagon at UFC 112 a huge underdog to the champion Penn (15-6-1). Edgar was the more active of the fighters, and won a controversial unanimous decision victory that night. Careful replay of the fight showed that Penn landed the more meaningful shots in the first three rounds, although Edgar turned up the heat in the last two...no doubt the defeated look on Penns face and the mouse under his left eye visually swayed the ringside judges in their scoring. With all of that in the past, we turn now to the rematch on August 28th.

The BJ Penn stepping into the Octagon this Saturday will be vastly different from the BJ Penn who fought Edgar in Abu Dhabi in April. He is focused, he is hungry, and he is unlikely to stand and fight Edgar's kind of fight a second time around. I look forward to seeing a more varied gameplan from the former champion, utilizing takedowns and his world renowned ground game along with his upper-tier striking. If we see the Penn who defeated Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, it is going to be a rough night for Edgar.

Frankie Edgar on the other hand, feels that he soundly defeated the former champion in their last outing and this fight is just there for him to solidify his standing as the number one lightweight fighter in the world at 155lbs. I expect to see very crisp striking from the champion along with sound takedown defense. Edgar's camp has time and again said they have no problem dealing with Penn on the ground, but with Penn's proven status as a top-level ground fighter I'd believe they would want to keep this fight standing at all costs. If Edgar gets lucky, he walks away with a KO or TKO victory early...because if Penn gets this fight to the ground, I feel like its going to look like Penn vs. Florian all over again.

Overall, I'd have to give the edge in this fight to BJ Penn. His only other loss at 155 came in 2002 to a now fading Jens Pulver and I refuse to believe that at age 31 he has shown us the best he has in the Octagon. While I like Edgar, I have to pick Penn in this matchup. Penn by submission.

UFC 118: Couture - Toney

August 28th brings us a promotional rarity from the UFC; Randy Couture (17-10) vs. James Toney (0-0).

While some of the older fans of mixed martial arts are likening it to the early days of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, I'm not alone in declaring this match a complete and total freak show. The days of single styled fighters going at it in the Octagon are long gone, snuffed out with the destruction of Royce Gracie by Matt Hughes in 2007.

James Toney has a very good boxing career, holding several titles in several weight classes over the years. But to think that a 41 year old boxer who has never stepped foot in the Octagon can knock out an elusive Greco-Roman wrestler such as Couture is defying the odds on a level I don't think anyone will go out on a limb for. As a boxer, Toney has trained for years on how to best unload knockout punches on an opponent with no threat of being taken to the ground or kicked. Toney is the kind of fighter who is heavy on his feet while throwing punches, and I see Couture using this to his advantage in getting the fight to the ground, where his considerable experience will pay dividends and result in a first round stoppage due to strikes or submission. Even though Toney appears to be putting in a diversified training camp for this fight, I don't see him closing the experience and talent gap that Couture will have on the ground and in the clinch. Besides, at 41 years of age...Toney is going to be a long shot at proving that old dogs can learn new tricks.

Despite being 47 years old when he steps in the Octagon on the 28th, Randy Couture (17-10) is still a very elusive, very fit, very talented fighter. Despite his lackluster win over Brandon Vera at UFC 105, Couture rebounded with a very dominant showing against the questionable Mark Coleman at UFC 109. Despite this, I believe Couture still has the ability and talent to be a top five Light Heavyweight fighter and I'm looking to see a strong showing from him against Toney in Boston at UFC 118. The only question left is to see what the UFC lines up for him next once he finishes Toney. I personally would like to see him match up against Forrest Griffin or Rich Franklin for his next 205 bout, and perhaps the winner of the Lyoto Machida/Rampage Jackson fight if he defeats Griffin or Franklin. All in all I would say Couture is two or three wins away from another title shot at 205. Make sure you check back for continued UFC 118 analysis and if you are free the 28th, order UFC 118 on Pay-Per View.